Issued: 5pm on Thursday, December 22nd 2022
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 12-22-22 through Sunday 12-25-22)
Things are going to be a bit messy for the short term, as the first major winter storm of the year is upon us. All of southeast Ohio is currently under a Wind Advisory, a Wind Chill Warning, and a Winter Weather Advisory ahead of this strong low pressure. This low will drive a strong cold front through the area, first starting out with rain ahead of the front, then fully transitioning to snow by very early morning on Friday. This will likely create what we call a flash freeze to occur, which is when anything wet freezes immediately when it hits the ground. This will make traveling tomorrow particularly dangerous, especially along with blowing snow from the potential wind gusts and Arctic air. This Arctic air we will be receiving is known as the “Siberian Express” pattern, which occurs when a negative Northern Annual Oscillation, also known as an NAO pattern (one of the climate modes that influences major weather patterns in the Northern Hemisphere), creates a large ridge of high pressure that moves into Siberia. This forces all the cold air out, following a clockwise motion throughout the Arctic, down through Canada, and finally into the U.S. Basically, this means the bitter cold temperatures arriving early tomorrow morning behind the frontal passage originated all the way from Siberia, where temperatures there were -70 degrees Fahrenheit just a few days ago! Fortunately, we will not have that low of temperatures, but our forecasted wind chills have certainly met the criteria for an alert. Wind chills as low as -25 degrees Fahrenheit will be possible, which will cause frostbite in as little as 30 minutes. This dangerously cold air will be combined with westerly winds between 15 to 25mph, with gusts ranging between 40 to 50 mph. These strong winds could potentially cause widespread power outages, and, to reiterate again, will make outdoor conditions particularly dangerous. Stay at home if you can tomorrow!
As for snow totals, this is NOT the main concern of this storm, which is why I emphasized more so the wind chill warning and wind advisory. Southeast Ohio can generally expect to have between 1-3 inches of snow in total, as the low will track right over the Great Lakes, which will provide northern Ohio with more accumulations than down south. However, it is important to note that snow may be heavy at times, mainly during the overnight hours behind the front. The heavier snow should only be brief, however, with Arctic air ushering in very quickly, depriving the area of moisture. Flurries will still linger throughout the day on Friday, but the majority of heavy snow should occur early in the morning. Despite the cold front passing through relatively early, it will continue to be rather windy throughout the day as the low is associated with a tightening pressure gradient. The Arctic cold will also continue, thus why the wind chill warning does not expire until Christmas Eve. Other than this system moving out and lingering flurries throughout the weekend, drier weather will return, but cold air will continue in time for Christmas.
Long Term (Monday 12-26-22 through Thursday 12-29-22)
Nothing much to report for the long term as of now. High pressure will build into the area, keeping things dry for much of the week. Long range models are showing another low pressure forming and bringing rain to the area in time for the weekend next week; however, it is still too early to tell if these models are accurate.
*Stay tuned on our social media platforms for information on the winter storm!
