Issued: 6pm on Sunday, October 29th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Monday 10/30/2023 through Tuesday 10/31/2023):
The longwave trough present this weekend still lingers, though it remains somewhat shallow. The Midwest currently remains on the downstream side of the trough, and moisture in the mid-to-low-levels still persist, so scattered post-frontal precipitation can be seen Sunday evening into Monday. Additionally, a low pressure system with a cold front will quickly move into the region, developing another line of rain. CAPE remains minimal, around 100-200 J/kg, so any chance of storms seems minimal. Rainfall accumulations could total past half an inch, and this will likely occur in the morning hours of Monday. The passage of this cold front will usher in far cooler air, dropping temperatures during Monday to the low 50s. Pressure will briefly stabilize on Monday, though our trough will tighten as it approaches the region on Tuesday. Another cold front late Tuesday, though with no precipitation, will keep temperatures in the mid 40s for daytime highs and the mid 20s for nighttime lows. Halloween this year looks to be chilly.
Long-Term (Wednesday 11/1/2023 through Friday 11/3/2023):
The passage of the trough will result in more zonal flow taking hold Wednesday and keeping for the rest of the week. Wednesday looks to be chilly but sunny, with high pressure dominating. Some stronger low-level winds will keep the rest of this week breezy, with gusts around 15 mph. Thursday will see more of the same, with pressure estimated to be at a strong 1030 mb, making for any chances of precipitation to be minimal. A few scattered clouds here and there are possible as well, with very shallow vorticity values. Friday will see temperatures rise back into the low 60s, stabilizing another temperature whiplash that is seasonable for this time of year. High pressure and zonal flow dominates, making for a calm entrance into the upcoming weekend.
Synopsis:
Monday-Tuesday: AM rain Monday, clouds and cooler temperatures remaining
Wednesday-Thursday: Sunny and cold
Friday: Mainly sunny, rising temperatures
