Issued: 6pm on Friday, September 24th 2021
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Friday 9-24-2021 through Sunday 9-26-2021)
This period is starting out with a departure of a weakening shortwave in mid-levels of the atmosphere with strong surface high pressure overhead leading to calm and clear conditions for our area today. Our weather pattern is currently under zonal pattern as heights values rose over past 24 hours or so, but this is expected to be short-lived as another trough is expected to move into our area soon. The new shortwave trough is currently located in northern Plains into western Mid-West region which will progress eastward and approach our area by late Saturday morning hours with main axis located over western Ontario area. A surface low develops in association with the trough which will have a cold front extending down to western parts of Ohio with band of showers out ahead of it. Showers should clear out our area by evening hours as the trough continues to move eastward as we are currently under progressive pattern. Right behind this s/w trough, an expansive area of upper level ridge over High Plains will try to move into our region by Sunday, but our region is still under NW flow from ridge allowing for cooler temperatures to hang around our area through this period under sunny skies. Temperatures will mainly be in upper 60’s to lower 70’s for highs with lows in mid-upper 40’s during this entire period with possibilities of morning fogs.
Long Term (Monday 9-27-2021 through Thursday 9-30-2021)
Long term period resumes with presence of upper level ridge, which is expected to intensify, over High Plains region on Monday. Underneath the “hood” of upper level ridge, fairly weak area of low pressure will move into Michigan and dragging warm front through our area and allow for warming temperatures. Overall atmospheric conditions will be too dry for any precipitation risk for our area with surface high pressure area to our south allowing continued clear conditions. Upper level ridge will continue to intensify quickly with rising heights in our area as we head into Tuesday into Thursday time frame. Weather pattern on surface level will mostly mirror upper level as well given surface high dominates our region. Given our expected weather pattern, this will allow our temperatures to rebound once again into upper 70’s to lower 80’s for highs throughout this entire forecast period with lows warming up to low-mid 50’s under continued lower humidity as our area remains under northwest flow pattern. No precipitation is expected during this period and will allow most of us to enjoy true fall weather.
