Issued: 4pm on Monday, February 26th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Monday 2/26/2024 – Wednesday 2/28/2024):
Zonal flow aloft and low-level ridging associated with NVA has brough subsidence promoting high pressure at the surface, bringing calm, clear, and dry weather overall to the region. A quick warm up after the passage of the cold front on Friday night into Saturday is the result of this surface high.
An incoming shortwave trough will move into the region tonight and into tomorrow bringing moisture advection up into the region with southwesterly flow aloft. An immature surface low pressure will move through on Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather at this time, largely due to the threat of severe hail possible, and also an isolated thunderstorm or two bringing gusty to severe winds.
Warm air advection in low-levels will increase Tuesday morning into the afternoon with the surface low’s associated warm front as the nocturnal low-level jet kicks in on Tuesday evening. The main severe threat in the state with this system is farther northwest, but 0-6 km bulk shear values of 60-70 knots still exist in the southeast parts of the state. An isolated tornado with some storms cannot be ruled out with long curved low-level hodographs with a strong line of thunderstorms early on Wednesday morning. CAPE between 750-900 J/kg and steeper mid-level lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km still make severe hail the most prominent threat for southeast Ohio with this system as the cold front moves through. Wednesday night as the temperatures drop sharply behind the cold front, some snow showers are expected as rain transitions to snow.
Long-Term (Thursday 2/29/2024 – Saturday 3/2/2024):
Ridging behind the large longwave pattern will build in with NVA behind the vorticity maximum associated with the trough, and convergence aloft will all promote a stronger high-pressure system at the surface. This should mean some nice weather for the time being, but a quick shortwave disturbance will move through the ridge later on Friday into Saturday, bringing the chance for some rain showers on Friday, and then as of now expect to enter a quieter pattern for the weekend with some lingering clouds.
Synopsis:
Monday PM: Sunny and dry weather with high pressure!
Tuesday – Wednesday: Severe weather expected Wednesday morning with a sharp drop in temperature, snow showers possible Wednesday PM.
Thursday – Saturday: Clear and drier weather, chance for showers Friday PM, and quiet Saturday!
