Issued: 6pm on Monday, November 20th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Monday 11/20/2023 – Wednesday 11/22/2023):
A slow upper-level cut-off low is anticipated to move through the region over the next several days. Showers are anticipated to start tonight ahead of the surface warm front. Widespread showers are expected throughout Tuesday and into the overnight hours with the passage of the cold front. Tuesday SE Ohio will be under a thunderstorm risk (0/5) per the SPC. Winds will be the main threat for SE Ohio with magnitudes up to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph during the morning and early afternoon hours Tuesday. CAPE will remain low, so storms should remain non-severe. The showers associated with this system will bring up to three-quarters of an inch of rain to the area. By Wednesday dry conditions will return and high pressure will slowly begin to build back in.
Long-Term Forecast (Thursday 11/23/2023 – Saturday 11/25/2023):
An upper-level zonal pattern will take hold by Thursday, but surface pressure will allow for skies to clear for a brief period. A strong jetstreak will help promote CAA Friday. Saturday slight ridging will take place allowing for further clearing in clouds. This period will experience afternoon temperatures in the upper 40s and low 50s. Overnight temperatures will bottom out below freezing in the upper 20s.
Synopsis:
Monday night – Tuesday: Widespread rain showers.
Wednesday – Thursday: Skies begin to clear and dry conditions return.
Friday – Saturday: High pressure dominates so dry conditions continue.
