Issued: 6pm on Sunday, July 16th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Sunday 7/16/2023 through Tuesday 7/18/2023):
Currently, there is an upper-level low sitting just across the border in Canada. This system is transporting the Canadian wildfire smoke south, impacting much of the Midwest and deteriorating air quality. This system will continue to impact our region until Tuesday. Tonight looks to be clear and dry as we are currently sitting under the right exit of an upper-level jetstreak, which is producing subsidence or sinking air. Monday, scattered storms are expected throughout the afternoon and evening hours ahead of the surface cold front. The cold front will pass in the late evening hours, around midnight, bringing what looks to be a relatively strong line of storms, which may have the potential for some strong winds as max surface CAPE values ahead of the line are around 1200 J/kg, indicating instability. At the time of this post, southeast Ohio, including Athens County, is under a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall Monday. The timing and severity of these storms, including the evening line, may change with newer model runs, so it would be wise to watch the weather Monday. Tuesday looks to be mostly dry as we sit between two upper-level jetstreaks, with a slight chance for an isolated shower during the afternoon due to daytime heating. Temperatures are expected to range from the mid-to-upper-80s during this short-term period.
Long-Term (Wednesday 7/19/2023 through Saturday 7/22/2023):
Wednesday also looks to be dry per the NAM and ECMWF models. However, this could easily change, as there looks to be a strong MCS passing just to our southwest during the afternoon/evening hours as another upper-level trough pattern moves into our region. If this system were to shift northeast in any future model runs, there is an increased likelihood that southeast Ohio could see some strong storms Wednesday evening. The ECMWF model signals that the surface low of the overall low-pressure system looks to stall just north of the Great Lakes Thursday through Saturday. This means that scattered showers are likely throughout this period as the system continues to weaken and shift east. High temperatures during the long-term period look to remain in the mid-80s. Per the Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Temperature Outlook, southeast Ohio is expected to see slightly below-average temperatures, which should provide some short-term relief.
