Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 7/7 through Wednesday 7/10)
Another chance for showers/thunderstorms for the remainder of Sunday as this cold front slides south of our area. Heavy rainfall from one of these cells may cause for additional flooding concern as the ground remains saturated. Subtle CAA with northerly flow takes place into Monday, which will create for drier conditions and a slight decrease in temperatures. Low-level moisture still lingers for Monday, which will contribute for some cloudiness with temperatures in the low 80s. After the reluctant threat for convective showers and thunderstorms, an upper-level ridge greatly develops across the northern Great Plains bringing dry and sunny conditions into the work week. This ridging and high pressure are expected to maintain and push east into the region and hold through Wednesday. Temperatures will increase (mid-upper 80s) throughout the period with an approaching warm sector. More moisture with dewpoints in the lower 70s will be advected in along an afternoon chance for a storm/shower Wednesday out ahead of the next organized system Thursday.
Long Term (Thursday 7/11 through Saturday 7/13)
An upper-level trough initiates off the western coast and digs northeast into the upper Great Lakes region by late Wednesday/early Thursday. This associated surface low looks to strengthen by the Dakotas, but shows signs of weakening before impacting our region. In weak agreeance with the GFS and the NAM, this disturbance looks to push through with a couple frontal boundaries beginning sometime in the morning hours for Thursday bringing showers and thunderstorms. With its current timing and overall weakening trend, severity may be very much limited until the afternoon with the exiting cold front, but things may change as we close in. The second cold front is to pass late Thursday leaving Friday and the start of the weekend dry with a bit of a warming trend as temperatures near 90.