Issued: 6pm on Thursday, June 8th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term Forecast (Thursday 6/8/2023 through Sunday 6/11/2023)
The hot topic right now is certainly the smoke that has been carried down into the Ohio Valley (and much of the northeastern United States), which has deteriorated air quality incredibly, In our immediate area, current air quality is considered “Good” by the Environmental Protection Agency, but we still see a haze in the air because of northeasterly and northerly winds carrying down all the smoke. As a result, we are under an Air Quality Alert until midnight tonight, June 8th. High pressure continues to keep the area dry and continues to keep our grass crispy, and this will continue through the weekend with that associated upper-level ridging. We see a strong, positively-tilted trough appear in the Rossby pattern, creating those northeasterly winds and carrying down that smoke, and the 500mb level shows how the dry slot is just continuing to feed dry air to the area. As a result of this, haze will continue through the end of the week and dry conditions with a breeze will support the spread of outdoor fire. Do your part – enjoy the nice weather without outdoor burning.
Our next disturbance arrives late on Sunday with an incoming and strengthening Colorado low. Upper-level patterns see a shortwave disturbance associated with that surface low. An influx of moisture is seen with this low, which means we are likely to see a good amount of rain with the passage of this system. Amounts will refine with time and as models resolve. Thunderstorms are possible as the line passes, and of course, we will see winds shift as well.
Long Term Forecast (Sunday 6/11/2023 through Thursday 6/15/2023)
We start the work week with wet conditions from that Colorado low, and we will see that low mature and become cut-off. As a result, the system will slow and stall, keep rain chances rather persistent for the early part of next week. Temperatures will remain on the warm side, even overnight with cloud coverage, but once we are able to see models project timing, we will have a clearer idea of this system’s exit.