Issued: 6pm on Thursday, May 23rd 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday PM 5/23/2024 – Sunday 5/26/2024:
A very unsettled pattern has taken hold and will linger likely through early into next week. A stationary boundary parked over the region is providing enough convergence and lift for showers and thunderstorms today. Tomorrow morning into the afternoon, this boundary will lift through as a warm front brining warm air and moisture advection into our region which will further fuel activity. Isentropic ascent ahead of an approach cold front will be the main forcing mechanism for showers and some thunderstorms where more instability exists as we head into Saturday. A slight drop in temperature can be expected post frontal passage on Sunday, but the front appears rather weak so no significant weather or temperature change is expected at this time.
Sunday, a longwave pattern is moving through the Plains into the Midwest region bringing severe weather to those areas. Here in Southeast Ohio, we can still expect showers and some thunderstorms as another warm front brings heat and instability to fuel them. The subsequent cold front passage will bring the expected storms later on Sunday. Latest model trends towards stronger instability continue suggesting that we could see an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms packing damaging wind gusts and even some stronger storms with hail. Medium-range model guidance also suggests bulk shear values as high as 40-50 kts for Sunday evening, further contributing to the potential for organized thunderstorm development. Flash flooding will also be a large concern given the amount of rain the region has received recently, and these storms look to dumb a lot more onto that. Make sure you are prepared for all hazards of severe weather this weekend should you have to take action!
Long-Term (Monday 5/27/2024 – Thursday 5/30/2024):
The buck doesn’t stop here in the long-term forecast, as another, more potent-looking shortwave trough is expected to eject over the region Monday into the evening and overnight hours. Strong moisture and instability advection with modest theta-e values Sunday into Monday will catalyze further chances for showers and thunderstorms. After the cold front passes through, we do expect a rather noticeable drop in daytime temperatures into the low to mid-70s. Additionally, on Tuesday, a secondary weak cold front looks to move through and a surface high-pressure system will take hold through the rest of the long term. Lingering showers are possible behind the cold front on Tuesday and Wednesday, but largely clear skies and dry weather look to FINALLY return for the rest of the work week.
