Issued: 6pm on Thursday, November 16th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday PM 11/16/2023 through Sunday 11/19/2023):
An upper-level shortwave trough is moving through our region bringing PVA associated with an occluded surface low. The surface low is very far north, but it is going to bring a cold front through our region Friday into Saturday, giving way to cooler temperatures with CAA behind the cold front. This cold front is also expected to bring rain all day Friday with QPF totals between .25-.50″.
Post cold front, upper-level ridging will give way to subsidence and build in high pressure at the surface and allow things to clear out and warm up slightly.
Long-Term (Monday 11/20/2023 through Wednesday 11/22/2023):
Monday, a large surface low from the southwest is expected to start to bring precipitation, likely on Monday evening ahead of an occluded front. This storm is being supported by a strong upper-level jet digging way down into the south central U.S., bringing a strong surge of PVA up into our region. This surface low is anticipated to be closed off and bring a good bit of warm air into the region indicated by higher heights on long-term model guidance. It has been a topic of discussion lately, but as of no the scenario that is most likely, the storm will have little to no winter weather impacts and be all rain.
Synopsis:
Thursday PM – Saturday AM: Increasing clouds with a cold front on Friday bringing rain and cooler temperatures.
Saturday PM – Sunday: Clouds begin to clear out with nicer weather, still cooler temperatures.
Monday – Wednesday: Precip. later on Monday, then rain through Tuesday, Wednesday dry but colder weather.
