Issued: 7pm on Sunday, January 28th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Sunday PM 1/28/2024 through Wednesday 1/31/2024):
The NWS has issued a Flood Warning in effect until 5:00 am Monday. This is due to the rainfall over the weekend from a low-pressure system. Any excess runoff from the rain will lead to potential flooding through rivers and creeks. This is likely due to the ground being saturated already from the previous system earlier this week. The upper-level trough bringing us the rain this weekend will taper off to the east heading into Monday morning providing subsidence on the back side of the trough. High pressure will settle in at the surface allowing for skies to become partly cloudy. However, the break in the rain won’t last as another system makes its way through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday morning.
On Tuesday morning, an upper-level trough will provide upper-level divergence and positive vorticity advection causing more precipitation to occur. The low-pressure system will become occluded at the surface and could potentially cause some gustier winds and heavier local precipitation. Rain is expected with this system Tuesday afternoon transitioning to a rain/snow mix Tuesday evening into the overnight. There is a slight chance of snow Wednesday morning on the back end of the system. High-pressure will settle in on Wednesday as clouds clear a bit with high temperatures remaining in the 40s and lows in the 30s.
Long-Term (Thursday 2/1/2024 through Saturday 2/3/2024):
High pressure will remain in the area through Thursday providing pleasant conditions for southeast Ohio. There is a slight chance of rain Thursday night into Friday morning as a weak cold front moves through. However, it is likely that no precipitation occurs with the associated cold front. Heading into the start of the weekend, the jet stream seems to be setting up an omega-blocking pattern over the central to northern Plains. A strong high-pressure system will dominate over the Plains with closed lows off the east and west coasts of the United States. Southeast Ohio is in position downstream from the ridge, which will provide subsidence and sinking motion. This will allow sunny and dry conditions and will likely persist according to the CPC 6-10 Outlook by the Climate Prediction Center, providing below-average precipitation.
Synopsis:
Sunday PM- Monday: Rain continuing this evening with cloudy skies tonight. Clouds will clear Monday from a high-pressure system.
Tuesday: Rain in the afternoon with a rain/snow mix in the evening from an occluded low-pressure system.
Wednesday-Saturday: Slight chance of snow flurries Wednesday morning. High pressure dominates the region. A weak cold front Friday morning with a slight chance of rain. Otherwise, pleasant conditions into the weekend.
