Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 7/21 through Wednesday 7/24)
Upper level troughing exists along the greater Great Lakes region with relatively strong flow aloft, up to 110 knots. This jet has an associated surface low in its right entrance region near the state of Indiana. This shortwave setup will continue to have its effects on much of Southeast Ohio tonight and into Monday. Associated with this weak surface low is a distinct, yet stubborn cold front that is located from WSW to the E along the northern portion of Ohio. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this evening and overnight as southwesterly flow and abundant low-level moisture will be favorable ahead of this boundary. The surface low will be pulled east of the region tomorrow morning as the upper-level pattern begins to dig and negatively tilt for the northeastern states along the coast. In response, the discussed cold front will drag through the area from the northwest by mid-afternoon on Monday (3-5 pm EDT). As cloud cover and rain showers will continue to endure ahead of the front early morning, CAPE values will be very much restricted as well as temperatures. As the front looks to pass, weak lapse rates and speed shear will be present for the late morning/ early afternoon hours on Monday. In conclusion, the showers and storms that do develop along the front may be limited to producing some gusty winds and moderate rainfall. CAA and northwesterly flow will quickly enter the region for the end of Monday, issuing cooler and drier weather. Tuesday will start off with some clouds as the lower levels of the atmosphere will be hesitant to dry out. A slightly cooler and much drier weather pattern will exist through the end of the period as upper level ridging becomes strongly amplified over the northern Mid-West. Lower dew points and seasonable temperatures will welcome comfortable and calm weather conditions through midweek.
Long Term (Thursday 7/25 through Saturday 7/27)
As the ridging continues over the Midwest, high pressure will remain stationary over our region through the rest of the forecast period. Temperatures will slightly warm into the mid-80s, but will still feel comfortable with the absence of the abundant moisture. Surface winds will likely become consistently calm as the atmosphere remains absent of any flow. This stretch of clear and calm weather sticks around before southwesterly flow and a more influx of moisture returns for late weekend and early following week. Far out, the GFS depicts a break to this pattern as our next disturbance is introduced late Monday bringing the next chance for precipitation.