Issued: 7pm on Sunday, June 2nd 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 6/2/2024 through Wednesday 6/5/2024):
An upper-level shortwave is moving through the region and will continue to bring the chance for some showers and thunderstorms through Sunday night. However, as the shortwave exits east, surface high pressure will fill in with weak upper-level ridging, allowing for the skies to mostly clear on Monday. Monday, a high in the mid-80s is expected. Tuesday afternoon temperatures will warm even further, potentially into the lower 90s, as the ridge furthers to intensify and southerly flow dominates.
Showers and thunderstorms will resume Wednesday through the early overnight hours as the cold front passes with a deeply negatively tilted trough. Currently, medium-range models suggest strong instability on Wednesday, so there may be the potential for some of the storms to be strong or severe, but confidence remains low. A clearer picture will be discussed in future forecasts as the day draws closer. The WPC currently does, however, have SE Ohio under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Both Tuesday and Wednesday will be humid, with dewpoints in the mid-60s to low-70s.
Long-term Forecast (Thursday 6/6/2024 through Saturday 6/8/2024):
The occluded low will remain overhead on Thursday through the weekend as it slowly moves east. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible throughout this period, but increased potential will exist Friday afternoon as a shortwave moves through and SE Ohio sits along the left exit of the upper-level jet streak.
