Issued: 7pm on Sunday, March 24th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 3/24/2024 through Tuesday 3/26/2024):
Ridging will continue through Monday, allowing for mostly sunny skies. RH values are expected to remain very low, below 20%, in combination with sustained winds between 10-15 mph and gusts up to 20 mph by Tuesday evening. As a result, there will likely be an elevated fire risk on Monday, as NWS Charleston, WV, has already put out a Hazardous Weather Outlook. The downsloping southeasterly flow, in combination with the sunny skies Monday, will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 60s and potentially low 70s in the region.
A surface low and negatively tilted trough will move into the region Monday night. The cold front will begin to move through late Tuesday morning, bringing with it a line of storms that should remain non-severe and strong winds with gusts up to 30 mph. The SPC currently has SE Ohio under a thunderstorm risk (0/5) on Tuesday. Instability is not present with low CAPE values as the line of storms moves through. However, bulk shear values are forecasted between 50-55 kts and may aid in thunderstorm formation, so either way, it is important to stay weather-aware when this line moves through Tuesday morning. Models are still in disagreement on how the front will move through, which will impact whether SE Ohio just sees rain showers through the early afternoon or into the evening hours. Furthermore, some models suggest a secondary cold front moving through that may aid in additional thunderstorm cells into Tuesday night/Wednesday morning; therefore, please keep an eye on our social media platforms, and future forecasts for updates as additional model runs come in for this event.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 3/27/2024 through Saturday 3/30/2024):
Though the trough will remain overhead, slowly making its way east for the rest of the week, surface high pressure will move in late Wednesday. As a result, conditions will remain dry, and skies will clear. Winds will also die down a bit as the high-pressure moves in with sustained values between 5-10 mph. These conditions will linger through Saturday with temperatures in the 60s.
