Issued: 7pm on Sunday, May 12th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 5/12 through Wednesday 5/14):
Sunday night will be cold with clear skies as high pressure continues to persist overhead. Clear skies will allow for radiational cooling, causing temperatures to drop even further into the mid-40s. Monday afternoon will also be dry as the high pressure continues east. Afternoon temperatures will climb into the 80s as weak advection of warm air takes place in conjunction with mostly sunny skies.
On Monday night, an upper-level shortwave co-located with a surface cold front will enter the region and bring scattered showers throughout the night into Tuesday morning. The negatively tilted shortwave will persist through Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. MLCAPE values up to 1000 J/kg will be present with low shear values Tuesday and Tuesday night. Therefore, there will be the possibility for a few weak thunderstorms to form. By Wednesday afternoon, the showers will cease, and a dry afternoon with cool temperatures in the mid-70s is to be expected. Fog may be possible both Tuesday and Wednesday morning.
Long-term Forecast (Thursday 5/15 through Saturday 5/17):
High pressure will fill in behind the shortwave as it moves east, allowing for Thursday to be dry as well. Partly cloudy skies are expected making for an enjoyable afternoon. Unfortunately, this will not last for long as another negatively tilted trough moves in Friday. Rain will return, with the possibility of thunderstorms Friday evening through Saturday afternoon, as weak instability may be present.
