Issued: 7pm on Sunday, September 17th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 9/17/23 through Tuesday 9/19/23):
A positively titled upper-level trough moved into the region today. With the passage of the surface cold front during the morning and very early afternoon hours, there were a few light showers. Due to the stabilization of the cold air associated with the cold front and the limited lift available behind it, no showers are expected as we head into the overnight hours. The trough will gain a neutral position overnight following the vort max. This will allow for higher pressure to begin building into our region at all levels. The subsidence from the increasing pressure will slowly begin to clear skies throughout the afternoon on Monday, so partly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures in the mid-70s. As the high pressure dominates into the night, skies will clear allowing temperatures to fall into the upper-40s due to the extra heat loss from longwave radiation. On Tuesday there will be sunny skies and temperatures in the upper-70s as high pressure continues.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 9/20/23 through Saturday 9/23/23):
High pressure will continue to dominate the region through the end of the week, and as a result of the strong subsidence with this system, sunny skies are expected. Afternoon temperatures will also continue to warm in the low-80s. This period will feature limited, but near-normal chances for precipitation and slightly above-normal temperatures for this time of year per the Climate Prediction Center.
Synopsis:
Sunday night – Monday: Cloudy and chilly, but dry.
Tuesday – Saturday: Sunny and warm!
