Issued: 7pm on Thursday, January 4th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Thursday PM 1/4/2024 through Sunday 1/7/2024):
A negatively-tilted trough is pushing east with a strong surge of PVA and is going to bring a colder air mass into the region. Sufficient moisture supplied from the Gulf with freezing temperatures mainly at night and in the mornings will lead to a rain-snow mix. Snowfall accumulations are questionable if any at this time, but less than 1/2″ is expected if anything accumulates. With daytime highs in the 40s through the weekend and into Monday, we expect any accumulation to melt off. However, there are still some travel concerns with sub-freezing lows, and rain/melting during the day that could lead to slick spots and ice on roadways. Travel with caution even if roadways are treated.
Long-Term (Monday 1/8/2024 through Wednesday 1/10/2024):
Upper-level ridging will support surface high pressure to start the week on Monday, but this won’t last long as a strong system is going to move into the region starting on Tuesday. Cyclogenesis off of the Rockies is expected to yield a very deep trough that will quickly gain a negative tilt. This negatively tilted trough is supportive of a weakening surface low that will likely be occluded by this time. Overlap of the 500 and 850 mb cutoff low pressure further shows a weakening system with lots of surface convergence. Rain ahead of the warm front will move in on Tuesday with WAA into the region and then possibly some snow on the backside of the system on Wednesday with wraparound moisture as it pushes off to our northeast. There is still uncertainty in timing and track with this system, but this is a good indication of what to expect next week.
Synopsis:
Thursday PM – Friday: Sunny/clear skies becoming cloudy with chances for snow beginning late Friday PM.
Saturday – Monday: Rain-snow mix expected, accumulations < 1/2″possible. Drier weather expected starting Monday, still cloudy.
Tuesday – Wednesday: Clouds stick around, rain showers becoming a rain-snow mix.
