Issued: 7pm on Thursday, June 15th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 6-15-23 through Sunday 6-18-23)
An approaching cold front from the north associated with a surface low pressure will begin to sag southward this Thursday evening, providing chances for showers and thunderstorms heading into the overnight hours. A strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out completely, however, but weaker instability, insufficient low level shear, and especially as we begin to lose daylight in the next couple hours, will limit any development. If anything, the main threats will be gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. Winds will be especially gusty right along and ahead of the front as this is where the most intense conditions are located. This cold front will slowly exit the region by Friday afternoon, with upper level ridging becoming the dominant pattern to close out the work week into the weekend. This ridging pattern will clear conditions out and cause a gradual warm up in temperatures, with highs in the high 80s by early next week in addition to mainly sunny skies.
Long Term (Monday 6-19-23 through Thursday 6-22-23)
As mentioned in the short term discussion, temperatures will begin to gradually warm up thanks to the upper level pattern, with highs well in the upper 80s by Juneteenth. However, additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will return as the next disturbances approaches the area. This disturbance aloft will create near daily chances, combined with the diurnal weather pattern, for showers and possible thunderstorms.
