Issued: 7pm on Thursday, June 22nd 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 6-22-23 through Sunday 6-25-23)
The upper level pattern currently shows a low pressure sitting over the Midwest region, pumping moisture in and bringing showers and even a few rumbles of thunder to the area this Thursday evening. Rainfall totals near a half to a quarter of an inch are possible, so flooding should not be a concern at this time. However, areas that are prone to flooding such as low-lying areas may still have a chance for localized issues depending on how much rain falls, and unfortunately, this upper level low is going to take its time moving out of the region. This means rain and isolated thunderstorm chances will be present throughout the weekend as well, making this weekend a soaker. The main bulk of precipitation should exit by Saturday evening, with only lingering chances on Sunday. These chances should be minimal during the day, however, as high pressure at the surface will keep things dry to close out the weekend. Shortwave energy from the exiting upper level low will spark slight chances for showers and thunderstorms again Sunday evening and with the help from an approaching cold front will make the chances higher towards the evening hours.
Long Term (Monday 6-26-23 through Thursday 6-29-23)
As mentioned in the short term discussion, a cold front associated with the upper level low will start affecting the area early next week. This will likely bring yet another round of showers and thunderstorms to start the new work week. Fortunately, conditions will finally begin to clear out mid week after the disturbances move out of the region thanks to upper level ridging and high pressure supporting drier weather.