Issued: 7pm on Thursday, November 4th 2021
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Thursday 11-4-2021 through Saturday 11-6-2021)
Short range period is staring out with a broad trough for most of eastern sections of U.S. at this time and leading to some of the coldest temperatures we have seen this season with highs in lower 50’s with lows in mid 20’s. This trough is expected to push eastward by Friday and really weaken out quickly. At this same time, we are noting a large scale upper level ridging for Southwest, Rockies, and into the Plains region now. Look for upper level riding to push eastward into the mid-sections of the country and we will see our heights begin to rise in response of this on Friday. The ridge will finally take over and be present for middle of the country and extend eastward into all parts of Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeastern areas by Saturday as per latest model data. There will be a trough for most of Southeastern sections of U.S. at the same time on Saturday, but this will not look to impact us. This pattern on surface level is translating to a surface high which is sitting right over our region as of Thursday and will continue to due so through Friday which will keep clear skies and cooler weather for us. By Saturday, we will be on the back side of this surface highs so southerly wind flow will result in temperatures warming up a touch for us. Our temperatures during this period will remain in lower 50’s for highs for Thursday and Friday with morning lows in middle 20’s and warm up slightly into mid 50’s for highs with lows in lower 30’s for Saturday. Temperature anomalies will be about 6°F-10°F below normal during this period.
Long Term (Sunday 11-7-2021 through Wednesday 11-10-2021)
Long term period resumes with large scale riding pattern for much of the U.S., expect the Southeast and far Western U.S.. As we move into the day on Sunday, we will have a ride axis which will be intensifying through the day Sunday for the mid-section of the country while we have cyclogenesis taking place off the eastern seaboard and not really impacting anyone. This riding continues to intensify and dominate much of the the areas east of the Rockies region with main axis right over Ohio Valley. This type of pattern allows for warmer than normal conditions to take place and often with dry weather. This ridge does not really go anywhere Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, although this ridge is expected to weaken down a little and re-configure at the same time. This pattern will continue to support overall milder weather conditions to settle into our area for entire long range forecast period. This pattern will translate to a surface high pressure which nearly sit over Tennessee Valley and pump in warm southwesterly flow. Our temperatures will likely be in low-mid 60’s for highs with morning lows only dropping down to upper 30’s Sunday night, which then warms up into low mid 40’s for Monday into Wednesday nights. Temperature anomalies during this time period will go above normal for the first time in a while and will be in the order of 3°F-6°F degrees above normal.
