Issued: 12am on Thursday, January 1st 1970
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Wednesday 7/31 through Saturday 8/3)
A stalled-out cold front finally pushes southeast of the area as of 00z Wednesday, which has been the primary forcing mechanism for the isolated showers that initiated today. With its passing, any remaining showers or storms through daytime heating will imminently dissipate as the sun begins to set. Some clouds will exist overnight as the lower levels (SFC to about 700mb) still maintain a relatively moist profile as well as calmer winds. In addition, a nocturnal inversion with possible decoupling of the surface will indicate some patchy dense fog development late overnight and before sunrise on Thursday. This unresolved weather pattern will continue and extend through this forecast period as we remain within this weak upper-level trough axis. By early Thursday, the aforementioned stalled boundary will persist and become stationary over the state of Virginia while extending southwest along the Appalachians. Simultaneously, high pressure of about 1022mb will fill in for the greater Great Lakes region and offer relatively “dry”, but unstable weather conditions. Temperatures will consistently remain seasonable and near the mid-80s for the highs. Moisture will progressively linger across Southeast Ohio with dewpoints remaining near the upper 60s and lower 70s, which will aid in this instability. Flow aloft will once again remain very weak and limited, whereas CAPE values may reach up to 2000-2500 J/kg by Friday afternoon. As the nearing stationary boundary remains just south, this will influence in combination of daytime heating for convective showers and thunderstorms to occur. Any isolated development that does occur through Friday and potentially early weekend will be prone to slow-moving progression that could introduce flooding concerns and possible wind gusts. Risk for severity will remain very low and limited, but not completely ruled out in regards of a strong wind gust (potential downbursts) and even some flash flooding concerns. We endure this pattern into late weekend as the region is sandwiched between strong upper-level ridging in the west and weak upper-level troughing for the northeast.
Long Term (Sunday 8/4 through Tuesday 8/6)
Late weekend, the region is still split between the upper level pattern across the country, but associated with less influence in forcing. As we continue to sit between the promoting flow, there still remains weak upper level troughing that overly extends through Ohio and into the South. Calm wind conditions and a steady influx of moisture will also remain in place. Cloud cover will be decreased over the period, but with promoting daytime heating, more isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible through early week. With any initiation, the risk for severity will once again remain very low as convective parameters remain well limited. This inconsistent and unsettled pattern looks to exist through Tuesday in before a more organized upper trough digs east across southern Canada. This out looked system looks to try and drag an associated cold front through southeast Ohio by early on Wednesday. Temperatures will begin to slightly increase to the mid-upper 80s as the forecast period progresses into mid-week.