Issued: 8pm on Sunday, January 7th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term (Sunday PM 1/7/2024 through Wednesday 1/11/2024):
More zonal flow has been present throughout the Ohio Valley that will develop into a steep ridge by Monday, promoting higher pressure and calmer conditions. Peaking in the afternoon of Monday, pressure will reach almost 1031 mb. However, quite a significant trough that will negatively tilt by the time of its arrival has built in the western United States, promoting a strong low pressure system that will become a cutoff feature to sweep upwards through the Midwest and into New England throughout Tuesday and into Wednesday. In the early morning of Tuesday, the warm front will push upwards into the region, bringing ample amounts of moisture resulting in a steady rainfall of 1-2 inches that will taper off in the afternoon. WAA will be quite prevalent, bringing temperatures to the mid 50s as the high on Tuesday. Despite the onset of a strong system, CAPE remains minimal in our area, reducing any risks of thunderstorms during this time. By Wednesday, the system will have become completely cut off, and the cold front will be arriving in our area in the late hours of Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong CAA is likely alongside wind gusts of up to 40 mph. Occlusion of this storm is likely around this time as well, and moisture wrapped around the back end of the low could result in scattered flurries throughout Wednesday morning, though any accumulations are unlikely.
Long-Term (Thursday 1/12/2024 through Saturday 1/14/2024):
Flow remains more zonal throughout Thursday, promoting higher pressure and subsequently calmer and clearer conditions, with a ridge developing during Friday. The onset of this ridge will be followed by another negatively tilted trough with an accompanying low pressure system, thought the track and intensity remain disputed. Models currently suggest a similar track to the previous low pressure system, which would result in more bouts of rain as the warm front pushes through late Friday, followed by the cold front. Similarly to the prior system as well, CAA accompanying the back-end moisture could result in flurries throughout Saturday. However, many details still remain unknown, but an active weekend could be possible at the very least.
Sunday PM – Monday: Overcast skies become mostly clear, calm conditions with a high of 42.
Tuesday– Thursday: Steady rain and cloudy, warmer weather. Rain accumulations up to 2 inches locally with gusts up to 40 mph. Flurries possible Wednesday, calmer weather following briefly.
Friday – Saturday: More clouds moving in, rain arriving late Friday into Saturday. Scattered flurries possible Saturday.