Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 2nd 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 02/02/2025 through Tuesday 02/04/2025):
A low-pressure system situated north of Ohio will maintain overcast conditions across the Athens region tonight. As temperatures rise above freezing, areas of drizzle are expected to develop. Winds will be predominantly from the south, contributing to the warming trend. The combination of moisture and rising temperatures may lead to reduced visibility in some areas due to fog formation. On Monday, the influence of southerly winds will result in cloudy, breezy, and warmer conditions. The increased cloud cover is associated with a warm front advancing through the region. The pressure gradient between the approaching system and the departing high-pressure area will lead to breezy conditions. Despite the cloudiness, the southerly flow will usher in milder air, leading to a noticeable increase in temperatures compared to previous days. On Tuesday, a cold front is expected to move through the area, leading to a shift in wind direction to the northwest. This will result in cooler temperatures. The day may start with some sunshine, but increasing cloud cover is anticipated as the front approaches. There is a possibility of light precipitation in the form of rain or snow showers, depending on the exact timing and strength of the cold front. Residents should be prepared for a drop in temperatures and dress accordingly.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 02/05/2025 through Saturday 02/08/2025):
The region will experience cloudy and cooler conditions as a result of the recent cold front passage. A weak disturbance moving along the frontal boundary may bring a little morning rain, followed by a couple of showers and a thunderstorm in the afternoon. The instability associated with this disturbance could lead to isolated thunderstorms, especially in areas where brief periods of sunshine enhance surface heating. Winds will remain light to moderate, primarily from the northwest. Thursday, developing low-pressure system to the west will push a warm front through the region, leading to warmer temperatures. Periods of rain and a thunderstorm are expected as the system moves closer. Breezy conditions are anticipated in the morning due to a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front. The combination of increased moisture and lift associated with the frontal boundary will enhance the potential for precipitation, with some thunderstorms possibly producing heavy rainfall. On Friday we will be in the wake of the departing low-pressure system, a strong high-pressure area will build in from the northwest. This will usher in much colder air, leading to a significant drop in temperatures. Skies are expected to clear, resulting in sun through high clouds. The influx of cold, dry air will suppress cloud development, but the presence of high-level moisture may lead to the formation of thin cirrus clouds. Residents should be prepared for the colder conditions and take necessary precautions. On Saturday, the high-pressure system will begin to shift eastward, allowing for the return of southerly winds and a gradual warming trend. However, an approaching frontal system from the west will increase cloudiness throughout the day. Times of rain are expected in the afternoon as the front moves closer, bringing increased moisture and lift to the region. The exact timing and intensity of the precipitation will depend on the speed and strength of the approaching system. Residents should monitor local forecasts for updates as the day approaches.
