Issued: 8am on Thursday, February 13th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 02/13/2025 through Saturday 02/15/2025):
A warm front lifting through the Ohio Valley overnight will bring increasing cloud cover and precipitation into early Thursday morning. Rain showers will taper off by midday as a sharp cold front pushes through, ushering in much colder air and breezy conditions. Winds will shift northwesterly behind the front, enhancing cold air advection and dropping temperatures quickly into the evening. By Thursday night, skies will remain mostly cloudy, with the potential for lingering flurries due to residual moisture and upslope flow. On Friday, high pressure will begin to build over the region, leading to drier conditions and clearing skies. However, cold air behind the departing front will persist, keeping temperatures well below seasonal averages. Winds will remain light as the pressure gradient relaxes. Overnight into Saturday, increasing cloud cover will signal the approach of the next system, with a developing low-pressure system moving in from the southwest. By Saturday morning, precipitation is expected to begin as a mix of rain and possibly some freezing rain in the early hours before transitioning to all rain as temperatures moderate. Rain will persist throughout the day with occasional heavier showers possible as the system deepens and moisture advection increases from the Gulf. Southeast winds will pick up slightly, supporting continued warming.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 02/16/2025 through Wednesday 02/19/2025):
The low-pressure system impacting the region on Saturday will continue moving northeastward on Sunday, with widespread rain expected in the morning. A strong cold front associated with this system will sweep through by midday, bringing a rapid temperature drop and the potential for a transition from rain to snow, though accumulations should remain minimal due to lingering surface warmth. Gusty northwest winds behind the front will reinforce cold air advection, making for a much colder second half of the day. By Monday, high pressure will take control, bringing dry but unseasonably cold conditions. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, though temperatures will struggle to recover as Arctic air lingers over the region. Overnight lows could dip well below normal levels under clear skies and light winds. Tuesday and Wednesday will continue this quiet but cold pattern, with high pressure dominating the eastern U.S. A slight moderating trend is possible by midweek, though temperatures will likely remain below climatological norms. Some weak upper-level disturbances may bring increased cloud cover at times, but no significant precipitation is expected through this period. The next potential system could approach late Wednesday or early Thursday, but confidence remains low in timing and intensity at this range.
