Issued: 8am on Thursday, February 20th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 02/20/2025 through Saturday 02/22/2025):
At the upper levels, a broad trough will be positioned over the eastern U.S. on Thursday, supporting a weak clipper system traversing the Ohio Valley. This setup will provide sufficient lift for scattered snow showers, particularly in the morning, before subsidence increases as the system exits to the east. A modest 500mb jet streak on the backside of the trough will enhance northwest flow, allowing cold air advection to persist through Thursday. By Friday, the upper trough will begin to lift northeastward as ridging builds in from the central U.S. This will lead to rising heights and increasing subsidence, allowing for gradual clearing and a slight moderation in temperatures. At 850mb, a weak warm air advection (WAA) regime will develop as winds veer to a more westerly direction. This trend continues into Saturday as the upper ridge amplifies over the Midwest, bringing mostly sunny conditions and continued temperature recovery.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 02/23/2025 through Wednesday 02/26/2025):
The upper-level pattern will transition to a more zonal flow by Sunday, allowing for continued moderation in temperatures under weak ridging. However, by Monday, an upper-level trough digging into the western U.S. will induce downstream height rises, reinforcing warm air advection over the Ohio Valley. This pattern will support increasing mid-level moisture transport ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. By Tuesday, a shortwave embedded within the larger trough will eject eastward, bringing increased cloud cover and a chance for precipitation late Tuesday into Wednesday. At 850mb, a strengthening low-level jet will enhance moisture convergence ahead of the front, increasing the likelihood of rain showers. The exact timing and intensity of this system will depend on the evolution of the upper-level wave, but current guidance suggests a mild and unsettled period midweek as the front moves through. Overall, the pattern favors a shift from cold and dry conditions to a warmer and more active setup heading into late February.
