Issued: 8am on Thursday, February 6th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 02/05/2025 through Saturday 02/07/2025):
A departing low-pressure system will keep lingering precipitation in the region early Thursday as a cold front moves through. Scattered rain showers will be the primary concern, with only a limited chance for thunderstorms due to weak instability and a lack of sufficient convective forcing. Gusty winds will accompany the frontal passage, enhancing mixing and briefly increasing surface wind speeds. By Thursday evening, precipitation will taper off as drier air advects into the region from the northwest, though lingering low-level moisture may support persistent cloud cover overnight. On Friday, a secondary weak disturbance embedded in the mid-level flow will pass through the region, reinforcing cooler air and maintaining overcast conditions. While most of the day will remain dry, residual low-level moisture could lead to areas of drizzle or a few isolated light showers, particularly in the morning. A brief period of clearing may occur late Friday into early Saturday as weak ridging moves overhead. Saturday will mark the transition to a more active pattern as a system approaches from the southwest. Cloud cover will increase through the day, with warm air advection strengthening ahead of the advancing low. Rain chances will gradually rise late in the day into the evening hours as moisture transport improves, but widespread precipitation is expected to hold off until the overnight period.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 02/08/2025 through Wednesday 02/12/2025):
The next significant weather system will impact the region Sunday into early Monday, bringing widespread precipitation as a surface low tracks through the Ohio Valley. Current model guidance suggests a primarily rain-dominated event due to a lack of sufficient cold air, though some wintry mix cannot be ruled out on the system’s back edge if temperatures cool quickly enough. The exact track and intensity of this low remain somewhat uncertain, but confidence is increasing in a period of steady rainfall, possibly moderate to heavy at times, especially in the pre-dawn hours of Sunday into midday. As the system exits by Monday afternoon, high pressure will gradually build in from the west, leading to drier conditions and partial clearing into Tuesday. A shortwave ridge will bring a brief warming trend midweek, with temperatures moderating as southwesterly flow develops ahead of the next potential system. By late Wednesday, another disturbance may begin to influence the region, but details on precipitation timing and intensity remain uncertain at this range. Confidence remains moderate regarding the overall midweek pattern, with adjustments likely in future forecasts.
