Issued: 8am on Thursday, January 30th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 01/30/2025 through Saturday 02/01/2025):
A broad area of high pressure will remain in control across the Ohio Valley on Thursday morning, promoting dry conditions and partly sunny skies to start the day. However, increasing mid-to-high-level cloud cover is expected by the afternoon as a low-pressure system approaches from the west. This system, tracking across the Midwest, will bring an influx of moisture, leading to widespread rain developing late Thursday night into Friday. With a well-defined warm sector moving into the region, southerly winds will increase, leading to above-normal temperatures ahead of an advancing cold front. Rainfall amounts through Friday morning could be moderate, with steady precipitation continuing through much of the day before tapering off by the evening as the system exits to the east.By Friday afternoon, winds will shift to the west-northwest as the cold front passes, bringing a brief period of gusty conditions and a notable drop in temperatures. The pressure gradient will tighten behind the departing system, leading to breezy conditions through Friday night. On Saturday, a strong surface high will build in from the west, allowing for clearing skies and dry conditions. Temperatures will trend cooler, with light westerly winds persisting. Given the relatively dry air mass, no additional precipitation is expected, and the day should feature ample sunshine with only some lingering stratocumulus clouds early in the morning.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 02/02/2025 through Wednesday 02/05/2025):
By Sunday, the surface high will shift eastward, allowing for a return to light southerly flow. Morning low clouds or patchy fog may be possible, particularly in sheltered valleys, but increasing sunshine is expected as the day progresses. A transient upper-level ridge will briefly dominate, keeping conditions dry and temperatures slightly above average. However, by late Sunday into Monday, a developing upper-level trough over the central U.S. will introduce increasing cloud cover and the potential for scattered showers as weak disturbances ride along the periphery of the trough. A more defined frontal boundary is expected to approach by Tuesday, bringing a renewed chance for precipitation. Current model guidance suggests a surface low tracking well to the north, with the trailing cold front sweeping through the Ohio Valley. This setup could lead to a period of light to moderate rain, depending on the system’s strength and available moisture. Behind the front, a cooler air mass will settle in by Wednesday, with lingering low clouds and potentially some light drizzle or scattered rain showers. Winds will gradually shift to the northwest, reinforcing the cooler pattern. While widespread precipitation is not expected midweek, persistent cloud cover and weak upper-level impulses may keep conditions unsettled. Overall, the long-term period will feature a transition from mild and dry conditions on Sunday to a more active pattern by early next week, with fluctuating temperatures and periodic rain chances associated with passing systems.
