Issued: 8am on Thursday, January 9th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 01/09/2025 through Saturday 01/11/2024):
Thursday will feature a continuation of calm weather as a weak ridge of high pressure remains in control. Expect partly sunny skies, with periods of stratocumulus cloud cover in the morning due to residual moisture and weak cold air advection from the previous system. Winds will remain light and westerly. Temperatures will stay below climatological averages, reinforcing winter conditions across the area. By Friday, a low-pressure system tracking from the southern Plains toward the Ohio Valley will begin to influence the region. As moisture increases ahead of the system, expect thickening cloud cover through the morning. Isentropic lift will enhance by the afternoon, leading to the development of snow showers, initially light but becoming steadier by evening as the system moves closer. Accumulations of 1-3 inches are likely by Saturday morning, but this will depend on the exact track and intensity of the low. Snowfall rates will decrease Saturday morning as the low exits to the northeast, though scattered flurries may persist into the afternoon, particularly in upslope-prone areas. By late Saturday, the pressure gradient will weaken as the low departs, leading to light southwesterly winds. Despite mostly cloudy skies, conditions should stabilize somewhat, with no additional significant precipitation expected. Cold air advection will keep temperatures chilly, and any lingering flurries will dissipate by the evening hours.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 01/12/2025 through Wednesday 01/15/2025):
High pressure will briefly build in on Sunday, leading to a mix of sun and clouds. This will provide a short reprieve from active weather, although temperatures will remain well below seasonal averages due to continued cold air advection. Calm winds and stable conditions will dominate during the day, with radiational cooling expected overnight under mostly clear skies. By late Monday, the pattern becomes more active as a developing system from the central Plains approaches. Increasing mid- and upper-level moisture ahead of the system will bring overcast skies by Monday evening, with snow showers likely to develop overnight into Tuesday. This system has the potential to bring light to moderate snowfall depending on its track and intensity, with impacts potentially extending into Tuesday night. As the system exits by Wednesday, drier air will move in, and a weak ridge of high pressure will reestablish itself over the region. This will result in quieter weather, though persistent zonal flow aloft will keep temperatures below average. Periods of cloud cover will alternate with brief sunny breaks as weak disturbances may pass through the area. Despite the calmer pattern midweek, there are no indications of a significant warming trend, with winter conditions holding steady for the foreseeable future.
