Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 11th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 7/11/2024 through Saturday 7/13/2024):
Following the interruption in our atmosphere from the passage of the low pressure system also known as the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, a ridge at 500mb is building over our region due to high pressure growing off the east coast. This is allowing high pressure to park itself over our region throughout the rest of the week. This high pressure will allow skies to remain mostly clear allowing increased insolation and thus, an increase in daytime high temperatures. On the contrary, lack of cloud cover overnight as well as minimal mixing due to calm winds will allow nighttime lows to drop into the upper 60s following mid 90 daytime highs.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 7/14/2024 through Wednesday 7/17/2024):
Although the weekend forecast will remain fairly dry, there is a slight chance for afternoon to evening pop-up thunderstorms Sunday due to weak vorticity in the upper levels. Following this, on Monday an upper-level ridge is expected to build over the Central U.S. providing vorticity from the NW resulting in some instability over our region. This will provide ample conditions for temperatures to spike near heat wave territory and providing plenty of atmospheric instability and moisture for daily chances of pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Be sure to check back Sunday for an updated technical discussion for a more accurate outlook on what to expect as far as the building heat and how these storms will shift throughout the week.
