Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 18th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 7/18/2024 through Saturday 7/20/2024):
Surface high pressure will begin to dominate our region Thursday as a trough progresses out of our region and an upper-level ridge continues to build. This will result in a fairly uneventful short-term forecast. With the surface high pressure and upper-level ridge, conditions will be dry and skies will remain fairly clear for much of the rest of the work week. Temperatures will remain in the mid 80s and humidity will remain less than 50% until Saturday when conditions will shift. Due to the uplift in a frontal boundary north of our region, heat and humidity will begin to increase Saturday with daytime highs climbing into the upper 80s and humidity becoming much higher.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 7/21/2024 through Wednesday 7/24/2024):
Instability will increase Sunday throughout Wednesday. An upper level trough will be positioned to the west of the region and will begin to dominate with southwesterly flow from the ridge of high pressure out to the east. With the increase in heat and humidity beginning Saturday, diurnal heating will be a factor in storm development as skies will still remain fairly clear to start. These storms could be kick-started by any shortwaves that disrupt the flow. With the increase in moisture content, there is the chance that some of these showers, if they arise, could bring heavy rainfall as they will have plenty of available precipitable water and will be slow moving systems. The chance for the flooding may be a factor if these showers decide to pop into the forecast so stay tuned for an updated look Thursday!
