Current Forecast Meet the Forecaster

Issued: 8am on Thursday, July 4th 2024

Technical Forecast Discussion

Short-term Forecast (Thursday 7/4/2024 through Saturday 7/6/2024):

Unfortunately, the chance for rain showers and thunderstorms will be sticking around into Friday. A cold front will stall over our region today delivering high moisture. With these rain showers, the chance for thunderstorms will stick around. Strong instability will be present with CAPE values near 1000-1600 J/kg however, vertical shear and heating will be limited due to the rain and clouds already making its way into the region. Fortunately, this means our highest probability for any severe storms lies mostly in higher wind gusts being possible Thursday evening into Friday. We will remain in a marginal risk by the Storm Prediction Center due to the chance of these higher gusts near 25mph.

Friday evening, another cold front will push into the region providing more moisture and the chance for additional showers. By Saturday afternoon into the evening, conditions should dry out as the front passes through and high pressure is restored to the region. Skies will then begin to clear making for a pleasant weekend following a stormy Independence Day.

Long-term Forecast (Sunday 7/7/2024 through Wednesday 7/10/2024):

High pressure will stick around through Sunday, moving out to our east in the evening. This will allow for sunny skies and drier conditions until Monday when a low pressure system will re-enter. Clouds will return and moisture will increase once again and bring back the chance for more showers and thunderstorms throughout much of early next week. Models are still unsure of the frontal system that will follow so be sure to check back sooner to the timing of these storms to learn more!