Issued: 8am on Thursday, June 19th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Thursday 06/19/2025 through Saturday 06/21/2025):
The end of an instable atmosphere will occur during the short-term. A shallow trough will dig over Ohio throughout Thursday with warm, moist surface temperatures following alongside it. Heights will loosely fall, and with the help of near-surface vertical velocity, a few storms Thursday afternoon showers and storms are possible. However, nothing suggests these storms will be severe. By Friday morning, the trough continues eastward as a high builds into the region. Heights at 500 mb begin rising dramatically, and stay steadily high, as a blocking high develops over much of the eastern CONUS. Surface high-pressure will dominate alongside this blocking high. That is to say that development of heatwave conditions is possible and expected in the short-term, but especially in the long-term. Warm air at all levels of the atmosphere will advect into the region which will only fuel the intense heat expected. Thankfully, surface humidity will stay relatively low Friday and Saturday.
Long-Term Forecast (Sunday 06/22/2025 through Wednesday 06/25/2025):
The heatwave is expected to persist and possibly even intensify into the long-term. The blocking high sitting over the eastern CONUS alongside a surface high with rising mid-level heights will continue past this week’s long-term forecast, possibly even late next weekend. Meager vertical velocity combined with persistent sinking air from the high-pressure in the region will heavily discourage cloud growth, much-less rain development. Though, surface moisture and warm temperatures will be present, so if day-time convection breaks through this convection inhibition then some rain showers could be possible. However, this possibility is quite low and may not occur until late next week.
