Issued: 8am on Thursday, November 21st 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Thursday 11/21/2024 through Saturday 11/23/2024):
The cold front that moved through the region on Wednesday has brought a dramatic shift in temperatures and set the stage for unsettled weather in the short term. On Thursday, cold air advection will dominate, holding high temperatures in the upper 30s to near 40°F. Gusty winds from the northwest will persist, with sustained winds of 15-20 mph and gusts exceeding 30 mph. Scattered rain showers early in the day will gradually transition to snow showers overnight as temperatures drop into the low 30s. Snowfall accumulations are expected to remain light, with up to an inch possible, primarily on grassy surfaces. Snow is not expected to stick around as ground temperatures will likely remain above freezing, making it difficult for snow to sustain. Friday morning will feature lingering snow showers transitioning back to rain as temperatures recover into the low 40s. Moisture wrapping around an upper-level trough will sustain light precipitation throughout the day, though accumulations will be minimal. By Friday night, precipitation will begin to taper as the system exits to the east. Saturday will bring improving conditions as high pressure builds from the west. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 40s under mostly cloudy skies, with rain chances diminishing significantly by late afternoon. Winds will relax as the pressure gradient weakens, leading to a more stable day overall.
Long-term Forecast (Sunday 11/24/2024 through Wednesday 11/27/2024):
The weekend ends with a brief period of tranquil weather on Sunday as the region comes under the influence of weak ridging aloft. Highs will reach the low 50s under partly cloudy skies. Sunday night into Monday, a weak shortwave embedded in zonal flow may introduce scattered rain showers, with precipitation probabilities peaking Monday morning. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will hover in the mid-50s, with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. A secondary wave could bring additional light rain Tuesday into early Wednesday, though confidence in timing and intensity remains low at this range. By midweek, high pressure may re-establish itself, providing dry and seasonable weather to conclude the forecast period.
