Issued: 8pm on Sunday, May 25th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 05/25/2025 through Tuesday 05/27/2025):
Clouds have entered the region due the jet stream aloft advecting moisture towards the northeast, but much of the rain will remain south of the region. This is due to a stationary front located in the Southern United States across Texas, Arkansas, Mississippi, Georgia, and Alabama as showers and storms effect their region from a shortwave trough associated with a vorticity maximum. In terms of southeast Ohio, clouds near-zonal flow will persist tonight into Monday with some meridional flow building over Memorial Day due to a broadening of a ridge. This will cause some northeasterly flow on the east side of the high-pressure system located over the Great Lakes region. Due to the low-pressure system to the south and high-pressure to the north, a modest pressure gradient can create some wind of 5-10 mph with a mix of sun and clouds.
However on Tuesday, a midlatitude cyclone will steer towards the northeast from the southwest as heights fall aloft and an upper-level trough progresses eastward towards the midwest into the Ohio Valley. As the warm front lifts into Ohio during the day on Tuesday, warm air advection and moisture advection will surge northward as widespread rain occurs over southeast Ohio. Rainfall can be heavy at times as positive vorticity advection aids in height falls and rising motion aiding in condensation and saturation within the atmosphere. The NWS in Charleston, WV has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook due to possible excessive rainfall Tuesday and Tuesday night that can lead to high water issues. Localized flooding can occur in regions that do experience embedded thunderstorms that produce torrential downpours; especially in regions with already saturated soils from previous rainfall. Luckily, any storms will not be severe at this time.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 05/28 through Saturday 05/31):
The low-pressure system will continue moving northeast along with the warm front Tuesday night into Wednesday as surface dewpoints increase into the mid-60s creating muggy conditions. While cloud cover is expected, localized regions with more sunshine can see scattered or embedded thunderstorms with localized heavy rainfall continuing through Wednesday evening. The cold front will begin to move through Wednesday night into Thursday as the system begins to occlude and fill in as it moves to the northeast region. A break in the rain can occur Thursday with a mix of sun and clouds as pressure levels return to normal with high-pressure staying off to the west in the Central Plains.
However, scattered and isolated rain chances can return Friday and Saturday with variable cloud cover as the continuous troughing pattern continues. However, a cut-off low may form, which will create a stagnant weather pattern for the rest of the week. This cut-off low behaves on its own unlike the jet stream patterns, so the timing of rain and where is difficult to pinpoint, but there is a chance of scattered rain to end the week. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies with breaks in the sky can occur with temperatures sticking to the mid-70s as highs and low to mid-50s as lows.
