Issued: 8pm on Sunday, August 27th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 8/27/23 through Tuesday 8/29/23):
We are currently under a weak upper-level trough, with a stationary boundary just to our southeast and positioned between two upper-level jet streaks. This environment will lead to an increase in cloud cover over the next few days. Fortunately, it will remain dry with average seasonal temperatures and northeasterly winds. By Tuesday evening, a new jet streak and an associated low-pressure system will move into the area, bringing along a weak cold front. This front will cause winds to shift, blowing from the north-northwest. As of now, models suggest that no rain will be linked to this front as it passes through our region. This is due to the weak front moving into relatively dry conditions in northwestern Ohio, characterized by low theta-e values.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 8/30/23 through Saturday 9/2/23):
On Wednesday, shortly after midnight, Tropical Storm Idalia is anticipated to make landfall along the western coast of Florida as a hurricane. Based on the current model guidance, it doesn’t appear that Idalia will have much, if any, impact on southeastern Ohio. However, since any potential impact is several days away, the situation could easily change. It’s essential to monitor Idalia’s progression and stay tuned to Scalia Laboratory’s upcoming forecasts for any alterations in the anticipated impact on southeastern Ohio.
Temperatures on Wednesday will be slightly cooler, staying below 80 degrees, due to the passage of a weak cold front on Tuesday evening. Clouds are expected to remain partly cloudy in the afternoon, with Idalia positioned to our southeast. Alongside this, high pressure will begin building in as the low-pressure system moves east on Wednesday. Conditions on Thursday are likely to mirror those of Wednesday as the high pressure continues to strengthen. By Friday, skies should clear, coinciding with the center of high pressure positioned just above our area. On Saturday, a minor shortwave and jet streak are projected to be located just to our northwest. This situation might potentially bring a weak cold front, although there is currently no indication of rain associated with it.
