Issued: 8pm on Sunday, December 29th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 12/29/2024 through Tuesday 12/31/2024):
A potent low-pressure system will continue to influence the region through the short-term period. Tonight, a cold front will sweep through southeast Ohio, bringing widespread showers and gusty winds. While thunderstorms are not expected, heavy downpours may occur, contributing to localized areas of ponding or minor flooding. Winds will be a notable concern tonight, with gusts potentially reaching advisory-level thresholds, especially during the frontal passage. As the front exits early Monday, winds will gradually diminish, and high pressure building in from the west will lead to improving conditions. Monday will feature partly sunny skies and seasonally mild temperatures as the pressure gradient relaxes. On Tuesday, a weak upper-level disturbance embedded within a zonal flow pattern will traverse the region, bringing a renewed chance for rain showers. Moisture availability appears modest, so precipitation will likely be scattered and light in nature. Temperatures will remain above normal, ensuring precipitation falls as rain. Showers will taper off Tuesday evening, allowing for dry conditions to return overnight. New Year’s Eve festivities should be mostly dry but cool, with lingering cloud cover.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 01/01/2025 through Saturday 01/04/2025):
The long-term period will be characterized by a transition to colder conditions as a broad upper-level trough shifts eastward over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. On Wednesday (New Year’s Day), breezy conditions in the morning will gradually subside as the trough deepens and colder air continues to filter into the region. Low clouds will dominate much of the day, though dry weather is expected due to limited moisture. High temperatures will fall to near or slightly below seasonal averages, with wind chills adding to the chilliness. By Thursday, surface high pressure will build over the area, providing a quieter weather day with intervals of sunshine. With a colder airmass firmly in place, temperatures will remain below normal. Overnight lows will drop to their coldest of the week as skies clear and radiational cooling takes effect. On Friday, a weak clipper system will pass through the Great Lakes, with its southernmost influence potentially brushing southeast Ohio. This system may bring a brief period of light snow or flurries Friday morning, though accumulations, if any, should be minimal. Northwest flow behind the clipper will reinforce the colder airmass, resulting in breezy and chilly conditions for the remainder of the day. Saturday looks to be the coldest day of the period, with high pressure regaining control and providing dry conditions under mostly sunny skies. Despite the sunshine, temperatures will remain below freezing for much of the day, and overnight lows could dip into the teens. This period will mark the quietest stretch of weather for the week, as no major systems are expected through the weekend.
