Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 16th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 02/16/2025 through Tuesday 02/18/2025):
A broad upper-level trough remains anchored over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, maintaining a cold and unsettled pattern through the early week. Tonight, lingering low-level moisture and cold advection behind a departing cold front will support scattered snow showers, primarily in areas of upslope flow and along weak mesoscale boundaries. Any accumulations will be light but could lead to slick spots on untreated roads. Gusty west-northwest winds will continue, sustained by a tightening pressure gradient, with occasional gusts exceeding 25-30 mph before gradually diminishing overnight. By Monday, surface high pressure builds in from the west, bringing drier air and reducing cloud cover, especially in the afternoon as subsidence strengthens. However, temperatures will remain below seasonal averages, reinforced by persistent northwest flow. A weak shortwave embedded in the larger trough will pass through Monday night, leading to increased mid and upper-level cloud cover but little in the way of measurable precipitation. Tuesday sees another reinforcing shot of cold air with the passage of a secondary surface trough, maintaining mostly cloudy conditions with isolated flurries. Winds shift more northerly, ensuring continued below-normal temperatures, though the air mass will begin to modify slightly by late Tuesday as the trough axis shifts eastward.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 02/19/2025 through Saturday 02/22/2025):
The extended forecast remains active, with multiple disturbances set to impact the region within a broad cyclonic flow aloft. By Wednesday, a developing low-pressure system over the central U.S. will begin tracking eastward, increasing cloud cover and leading to a higher probability of snow by late Wednesday into early Thursday. Model guidance currently supports a more suppressed southern storm track, which could keep the heaviest precipitation south of the region. However, given the deep moisture advection and favorable mid-level dynamics, light accumulating snow remains likely, particularly in areas closer to the Ohio River. Thermal profiles will need to be monitored closely for any potential rain/snow transition zones if the system shifts northward. In the wake of this system, high pressure builds briefly on Thursday, offering a period of drier but continued cold conditions. However, guidance suggests another potent trough digging into the Midwest by late Friday into Saturday, introducing renewed precipitation chances. Depending on the evolution of this feature and the positioning of the associated surface low, the region may experience another round of light snow or a wintry mix. The overall pattern remains supportive of below-average temperatures, with a continued risk of wintry precipitation through the end of the week as multiple shortwaves traverse the region within the prevailing longwave trough.
