Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 27th 2022
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 2-27-2022 through Tuesday 3-1-2022)
Short term period is starting out with dissipating southeastern ridge along with another ridge developing in middle of CONUS while there is persistent troughing in Upper Midwest, most of Great Lakes, into Northeastern region. Our specific area is at the edge of troughing to our northeast while riding is to our south and west as of Sunday afternoon with surface high pressure overhead. This is lead to return of sunshine after few days of unsettled and chilly weather with seasonable conditions now back in place. As we head into Sunday night into Monday, weak upper level heights will build back into our region, but presence of strong surface high pressure and back door cold front will lead to chilly conditions to start out Monday morning. No precipitation is expected with passage of back door cold front due to atmosphere being too dry, in fact there won’t be a single cloud with this. Those weak heights will remain in place through all of daytime hours on Monday and despite the higher heights, our relative flow is still out of northwest, and surface high to our northeast so there is still easterly wind component in place so temperatures will largely be the same as it was today with abundant sunshine during the day. Our upper level pattern is not expected to change at all through Tuesday with a ridge still remaining over western to middle portion of CONUS with troughing to the northeastern U.S., very typical of summer weather pattern interestingly, but there is a clipper system which is expected to form along this ridge/trough boundary over northern Minnesota by Monday afternoon which then quickly traverses eastward into northern New York state by Tuesday evening. As this occurs, there will be warm front which lifts northward late Monday night into Tuesday morning, and this is what allows even warmer air to move overhead and kick start Meteorological Spring on Tuesday, March 1st as it will indeed feel like spring outside. I would recommend if you do have time during the day to spend it outdoors as we remain under extended dry conditions with warmer temperatures. One thing to note will be the breeze factor, as it typically is the case on southern side of clippers, and it looks like we could have 5-15mph winds with gusts upto 25mph. As the clipper then moves eastward, a cold front will push closer to our area, but it is not expected to cross our area as it gets held back by another disturbance arriving to our northwest, and this front pushes northward again.
Looking at the expected temperatures, highs on Sunday was in upper 40’s to 50°F mark which will be the case again on Monday as well before we push into upper 50’s to 60°F mark at spots on Tuesday. Low temperatures Sunday night will drop down into upper 10’s which then warms up to upper 20’s to lower 30’s Monday and Tuesday night. Our overall temperature anomalies will be 1°F-4°F above normal for this time of the year.
Long Term (Wednesday 3-2-2022 through Saturday 3-5-2022)
Long term period will resume with generic upper level ridge centered over parts of middle and western CONUS while the general trough remains over northeast, but our area will be more influenced by the upper level ridge as it ever so slightly builds in overhead with temperatures still bit cooler not too far to our northeast. We will pick up where we left off temperature wise on Tuesday for Wednesday as well which would mean spring like weather will continue once again with temps possibly even couple more degrees warmer as yet another clipper system will drop down into far northeastern Montana Tuesday night, race eastward into northern Wisconsin by Wednesday morning, and finally push into northeastern states once again. As its typically the case with clippers, we warm once again as we are on the southern side by Wednesday afternoon, but a potent cold front this time will be able to push southeastward down to our area by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This front here is something to watch as latest trends have been pushing this system bit more southward with each passing runs and if this trend continues, I might need to not only adjust Thursday-Friday temperature trends, but also to trend cooler for daytime Wednesday as well. While this is not consistent on run to run basis, I have also seen few models hinting at possible moisture present on the back side of the cold front Wednesday night into Thursday which could yield the possibility of some snow showers. After further inspecting through many ensemble data and sounding forecast, there appears to be no real support for snow showers on top of models possibly over doing the availability of moisture. I will opt for dry weather conditions and keeping temperatures bit warmer for now during the late week period and monitor future trends to decide on any changes. Temperatures will certainly return to normal levels during Thursday into Friday time frame as strong surface high pressure dives southeastward. Looking back at upper level pattern, riding remains into middle of U.S. with a trough now pushing into west coast with another stronger trough holding its ground over eastern Ohio Valley into Northeastern states. Once we head into Friday evening, the ridge finally is able to push eastward over most eastern half of CONUS, exception of northern New England, while troughing develops in more of western U.S. to set the stage for a potent system in middle of U.S.. As the surface high pushes eastward by Friday evening, our wind direction switches out of southwest yet again with warm front looking to push northward by late Friday night. The upper level riding is expected to be in place for areas along and east of Mississippi River while the shortwave leads the main trough to the west and is expected to lift northeastward into central Midwest. From this distance it appears that our region will be more influenced by the high pressure moving eastward so things should remain dry at least during the daytime hours before another cold front advances eastward by late Saturday night into Sunday morning and rain showers are able to move in. Too early to give any specific details as we are still 6-7 days out, but we will certainly look forward to relative warmer and dry conditions over next several days.
Looking ahead to expected temperatures, high temperatures on Wednesday is expected to approach low-mid 60’s with things cooling down into mid-upper 40’s for Thursday and Friday period before we warm up once again into lower 60’s by next Saturday. Low temperatures will be middle 30’s Wednesday night with one night cool down into middle 20’s Thursday night and rise into upper 30’s Friday night and upper 40’s Saturday night out ahead of cold front. Temperature anomalies for this time of the year during the long term period are expected to be 5°F-7°F above normal. Please do note that temperatures are subjected to changes, especially Wednesday afternoon into Friday morning period. I hope everyone gets to enjoy extended dry conditions with relatively warmer pattern this upcoming week.
