Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 4th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 2/4/2024 through Wednesday 2/7/2024):
A high-pressure ridge will continue to dominate SE Ohio for the next several days. To our south, there is a strong closed-off low-pressure system that is producing strong storms to those in its path. As a result, for us, though, that means high pressure can fill in and remain as the southern system heads to the east. Due to the high pressure, we will see northerly winds for the next several days, which will be mostly weak except for Monday, when they pick up slightly. Furthermore, the resulting subsidence from the high pressure will allow for sunny skies. Moderate NVA will dominate primarily, further strengthening the high through this period. However, on Monday night and Wednesday afternoon, two small areas of moderate PVA will move through and, with it, bring in temporary increased cloud cover during these periods.
Long-term Forecast (Thursday 2/8/2024 through Saturday 2/10/2024):
Thursday, the upper-level ridge will still be overhead. However, the warm front associated with the trough to our west will make its way into the region. Afternoon temperatures are anticipated to climb into the upper 50s, potentially low-60s, as significant WAA takes place. Cloud cover will also increase to mostly cloudy skies. By Friday, strong PVA and the left exit of the upper-level jet streak in the trough will be overhead, further amplifying upward motion and surface winds. Cloud cover will be overcast by this time, and scattered showers will take place throughout the afternoon into the overnight hours. Rain showers should end by the early morning Saturday, though mostly cloudy skies will persist through the afternoon.