Issued: 8pm on Sunday, February 5th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 2/5/23 through Thursday 2/9/23)
After a slight shortwave trough, Sunday comes to a close with brief upward motion and therefore, overcast skies. Ridging proceeds tomorrow but is followed quite closely by a deepened trough, bringing the chance of rain as early as overnight into Wednesday. Warm air advection into the trough causes temperatures within our region to climb unseasonably warm, highs reaching into the upper 50s! Moisture at the surface levels surges into the area with the overtaking trough and associated cold front, but it sticks around with another low pressure center scheduled to barrel the area later this week on Thursday. Precipitation type looks to be rain with those warm temperatures, and we could see totals up to 1 to 1.2 inches over the course of the week. Localized flooding as the rain passes is likely, so take it slow around winding roads and give yourself extra travel time.
Long Term (Thursday 2/9/23 through Sunday 2/12/23)
Cold air advection out of the week’s troughing pattern means that temperatures are expected to drop as the system exits to our east. The passage of a third low pressure is expected on Friday, so we might see rain, depending on the amount of moisture present in the sky at the time. Skies open up on Sunday with sinking motion and rising pressure, so we will see some peaks of sun with the weekend.