Issued: 8pm on Sunday, July 21st 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 7/21/2024 through Tuesday 7/23/2024):
An upper level trough is digging over the southern Ohio Valley region providing moisture and southwesterly flow. This moisture will provide plenty of opportunities for showers and thunderstorms throughout much of the week. becoming even more prominent as any shortwaves move through the flow in combination with daytime heating. A frontal boundary progressed into the region today provide more instability for these conditions. These systems will be slow moving as the winds and mixing will remain calm but thankfully, none will be severe in nature. Even though none will be severe, these slow moving showers potentially can bring the threat of localized flooding in flood-prone areas due to their stationary nature and the amount of moisture withheld. As a vorticity maxima moves in Tuesday afternoon, the convective nature of these systems will increase providing more of a chance for some thunderstorms within the rain showers. Due to this moisture, humidity will be high especially over the nighttime hours.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 7/24/2024 through Saturday 7/27/2024):
A slight break will occur Wednesday as a shortwave will exit the region .This break will not last long as a cold front will enter soon after on Thursday. This will deliver some frontal showers that will be maximized due to the upper level trough and a shortwave moving through the flow. A few more shortwaves will proceed elongating the chance for precipitation. Following the passage of the front, drier conditions are ahead for the weekend as surface high pressure will settle into the region. Overall, a rainy week but better conditions ahead for the weekend!
