Issued: 8pm on Sunday, July 28th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 7/28/2024 through Tuesday 7/30/2024):
An upper-level trough will be heavily influencing our conditions through Tuesday. Due to this instability and increased moisture levels, rainy conditions will be persistent. Some of these systems will be capable of producing some thunderstorms but the chance for any of these to be severe is limited due to cloudy conditions restricting diurnal heating and convection. Due to calm winds at the surface and weak shear, some of these systems will be slow moving and provide a substantial amount of rain. Even though this further inhibits the chance for severe weather, flooding could definitely be a noteworthy concern especially for those flood-prone areas. Along with the slow moving systems, heavy downpours due to the increased moisture and increased DCAPE will be possible and make flooding even more of a concern. As far as temperatures, they will remain fairly consistent until Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 7/31/2024 through Saturday 8/3/2024):
As the trough continues its progression eastward, a warm front will pass through raising our daytime high temperatures into the low 90s. Northwesterly flow will increase potentially brining convection into the region and the chance for some thunderstorms to arise. Aiding this, diurnal heating will become a factor as skies will begin to clear during the later half of the work week. With mostly sunny skies coming into the forecast, convection has the chance to increase raising the threat for some interesting thunderstorms. At the moment, it is difficult to say if any will be severe but is not a major concern as of now. A surface high pressure moving in could limit this possibility and suppress the convection entering the region from making any of these storms substantial. Check back Thursday for a more updated look on how these events in our long-term forecast are expected to pan out.
