Issued: 8pm on Sunday, June 15th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 06/15/2025 through Tuesday 06/16/2025):
A broad upper-level trough continues to dig into the central U.S., promoting persistent southwest flow aloft over the Ohio Valley. Embedded shortwave energy within this flow is enhancing lift across the region, while deep-layer moisture advection from the Gulf remains firmly in place. Precipitable water values are anomalously high for mid-June, generally over 1.75″, supporting efficient rain-producing convection. At the surface, a quasi-stationary frontal boundary is draped just to the south of the area, acting as a focus for repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday. The boundary will slowly lift northward as a warm front by late Monday into Tuesday, allowing warm-sector instability to expand northward. This, coupled with low- to mid-level jet support (30–40 kt at 850 mb), will enhance the risk for heavier and more organized convective activity, particularly Tuesday afternoon and evening. Flash flooding remains a concern, with the Flood Watch in effect through at least Tuesday due to the potential for training storms and saturated soils. Expect occasional breaks between rounds of rainfall, but confidence is high in at least scattered to widespread coverage each day through this period.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 06/17/2025 through Saturday 06/20/2025):
By midweek, the upper-level trough begins to lift out, but weak impulses embedded in the residual southwesterly flow aloft may still trigger isolated to scattered convection, especially during peak heating. Wednesday looks to be the warmest and most humid day of the week, with Athens positioned in the warm sector ahead of the next frontal boundary. By Thursday, a more defined shortwave over the upper Midwest will push a cold front southeastward. This front is expected to cross the region Thursday evening into early Friday, enhancing the chance for organized convection and possibly stronger storms depending on available instability and shear. Model guidance is showing some variability with the timing and amplitude of this system, but ensemble consensus supports a cooler and drier airmass filtering in behind the front by Friday. Upper-level heights are expected to rise to end the week, with surface high pressure building in from the northwest, promoting dry and seasonable conditions for Friday and Saturday. Confidence is moderate to high in this transition toward quieter weather heading into the weekend.
