Issued: 8pm on Sunday, June 16th 2024
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 6/16/2024 through Wednesday 6/19/2024):
A strong, persistent high pressure is currently overhead and will continue to be for the duration of this week. The southerly flow will advect both moisture and warmer air into the region, causing afternoon temperatures to rise into the mid-to-upper 90s and heat index values to peak even higher. As a result of the added moisture (dewpoints in the mid-70s), heat index values will likely peak into the low-100s. Due to these high heat index values, NWS Charleston has placed SE Ohio under an Excessive Heat Watch from Monday morning through Friday evening.
It is essential to be careful while outside during this stretch of time. If you plan to spend extended periods of time outside, make sure to drink plenty of water, apply sunscreen, and take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning. Furthermore, make sure to check up on those who are more susceptible to heat-related illnesses, like the elderly. Lastly, do not leave pets or children in vehicles unattended for any stretch of time.
In addition to the hot weather, there is a chance for some possible thunderstorms late Monday evening into the overnight hours. Models show sufficient CAPE (up to 1500 J/kg at the time of the potential storms) and moisture (dewpoints in the mid-70s), though little shear, for shortwave energy to set off some thunderstorms during that time. Currently, CAMs are not in agreement for the possibility of these storms right now, as it depends on the location of the shortwave, which may remain too far to the west. Ultimately, if these storms were to occur, heavy rain, lightning, and strong winds and gusts would be the main threat. Timing and additional details will provided in our future forecasts.
Long-term Forecast (Thursday 6/20/2024 through Saturday 6/22/2024):
High pressure will continue Thursday and Friday, continuing the hot temperatures and heat threat. However, by Saturday, a more zonal flow aloft will take hold, with the potential for some scattered showers throughout the day.
