Issued: 8pm on Sunday, June 8th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 06/08/2025 through Tuesday 06/10/2025):
A warm front remains draped across the Ohio Valley this evening, fostering a moist and unstable environment that will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours. This activity is being enhanced by broad upper-level divergence ahead of a developing trough digging across the central U.S., which is providing large-scale ascent. Storms tonight may pulse in intensity but are expected to gradually weaken with the loss of diurnal heating. However, pockets of heavy rainfall and isolated gusty winds remain possible, especially in areas where convection becomes locally enhanced. By Monday, a more robust synoptic system will influence the region. A mid-level trough deepening over the Great Lakes will drive a surface cold front eastward, setting the stage for a more organized severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of southeast Ohio, including Athens, in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient instability, deep-layer shear, and low-level helicity for organized convection, especially during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds appear to be the primary threat, though large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible, particularly in discrete supercell structures that form ahead of the main convective line. Flash flooding will be a secondary concern, as high precipitable water values combined with training cells could lead to localized runoff issues. Conditions will improve late Monday night as the front moves east and drier air begins to filter in. Tuesday will feature a marked change in the airmass. With the cold front having cleared the region, surface high pressure will begin to build in from the west. This will usher in a period of subsidence and drying, resulting in mostly sunny skies and significantly lower humidity levels. Light northwesterly flow aloft and at the surface will reinforce the pleasant conditions. No precipitation is expected, and convective activity should remain suppressed through the day.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 06/11/2025 through Saturday 06/14/2025):
The extended period looks to remain relatively quiet across the region, dominated by a building ridge both at the surface and aloft. On Wednesday and Thursday, the ridge axis will remain overhead or just to the west, promoting dry and stable weather. Abundant sunshine, light winds, and a gradual warming trend can be expected as 500 mb heights increase and low-level thicknesses respond accordingly. Temperatures will trend warmer each day, but the lack of significant low-level moisture will keep conditions comfortable, with little threat for afternoon convection. By Friday and Saturday, the ridge will begin to flatten slightly as weak shortwave energy skirts the northern periphery of the high. Southerly flow will also begin to return, gradually increasing low-level moisture across the Ohio Valley. While deterministic models show minimal QPF, ensemble solutions hint at a modest uptick in instability by the weekend. That said, large-scale forcing appears to remain limited, and any shower or thunderstorm activity will likely be isolated and diurnally driven at best. Overall, the late-week period looks warm and increasingly humid, but still largely dry for Athens, with only a low-end chance of showers or storms developing as we head into Saturday.
