Issued: 8pm on Sunday, March 12th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short Term (Sunday 3/12/2023 through Thursday 3/16/2023)
A low pressure center exists over Wisconsin, and its associated frontal boundaries are the reasons for precipitation popping up throughout the day. The low pressure center that brought widespread precipitation and overcast skies continues to drag eastward. Negative vorticity advection upstream of the trough works against the cyclonically rotating system, leading to that weakening low pressure. This lifting low pressure will be the main source for precipitation chances lasting through Monday before a sharp longwave ridging pattern takes over, allowing for high pressure to settle in for the major part of the work week. With this strong ridging comes strong surface winds, reaching up to 30 knots overnight into Tuesday. These strong winds create strong cold air advection into the Ohio Valley, so while sunny skies exist for the better part of the week, we are still going to see freezing overnight temperatures on top of seasonable daytime highs. Overall, it’ll be a coat-worthy week with our first peeks of sun as soon as Tuesday with rising pressure.
Long Term (Thursday 3/16/2023 through Sunday 3/19/2023)
Thursday, expect temperatures this week to hit their highest in the upper 50s with strong warm air advection as the peak of the ridging casts east and we start seeing the effects of a longwave trough. Our next system moves in on Friday after it develops out west and pushes northeast. Right now, we see the warm front strike on Friday early on, but the cold front carries in overnight into Saturday, then temperatures are expected to drop dramatically back to a more seasonable range. This system is looking to be much stronger than the system we saw pass this weekend, and is likely to bring stronger precipitation and deepened cold air, so definitely stay weather aware as models refine. Saturday and Sunday are now projected to be chilly and drying up with settling high pressure once again.