Issued: 8pm on Sunday, March 9th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 03/09/2025 through Tuesday 03/11/2025):
Currently, 300 mb flow is split with the polar jet located further northward, though an embedded shortwave trough with a cutoff cyclone is currently situated in the lower southern United States. The Ohio region, being roughly placed in the right exit region of the polar jetstreak, is currently under the influence of high pressure. By Monday, the surface cyclone associated with the shortwave will be forced off the east coast, and upper level flow becomes more zonal. This will result in pressure falling slightly back to normal for the area, though with a lack of sufficient moisture advection, conditions will remain relatively cloudless. During this time, warmer airmasses from the west will be advected into the region, resulting in sustained warming up to the low 70s by Tuesday. A developing midlatitude cyclone in northern Minnesota will introduce a slight pressure gradient in the region, resulting in breezy surface conditions. As upper level flow continues to remain zonal through Tuesday, and without any dynamic advection of moisture, conditions are expected to be clear and warm.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 03/12/2025 through Saturday 03/15/2025):
The aforementioned surface cyclone will have been steered deeper into northern Canada by Wednesday due to the upper level jet, resulting in a weak cold front trailing through the upper United States. However, as the cold front begins to slow and becomes more a feature of a strong surface high pressure rather than its parent cyclone, and without forcing by an upper level trough, the front will effectively stall by Wednesday in the Ohio Valley, becoming a stationary front. This front will promote more sufficient 700 mb moisture advection, resulting in scattered low-level clouds throughout the day. An additional shortwave trough to the south by Thursday will continue to promote moisture advection alongside increasing temperatures as zonal flow through Ohio persists. Temperatures will now be in the mid 70s, with dew points in the mid 40s. By Friday, a powerful upper level cyclone and upper level trough will develop in the central Plains, with the trough becoming negatively tilted by the later hours of Friday. An intense southwesterly jet is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening as well, and strong moisture advection is likely to support a severe outbreak along the Mississippi River Valley along a potent cold front. The occluding cyclone will be advected into Canada by Saturday, but its residual fronts will move through the Ohio Valley during that time. The warm front could spur up a few scattered showers in the region, but into Sunday, the potent cold front will enter the region. While long range forecasting is unreliable for convective forecasting, current forecasts of >1000 J/kg surface-based CAPE and >20 kt 0-1 km shear do not present a necessarily unfavorable potential for severe weather. However, it is important to note that these are convective conditions being reported by a non-convection-allowing model, and thus a more accurate diagnosis of convection will be available in due time.
