Issued: 8pm on Sunday, October 15th 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 10/15/2023 through Tuesday 10/17/2023):
An upper-level shortwave embedded in the recent occluded low is expected to continue to bring short scattered rain showers for the next 36 hours. Fortunately for our region no more than a tenth of an inch of rain is expected, but the random showers may be an additional annoyance to the start of your work week if caught outside during them. By Tuesday afternoon upper-level ridging should take over, and so rain showers should subside and skies should begin to clear a bit. Due to the northerly flow from the remnants of the occluding system temperatures should remain cool ranging between the mid-50s to low-60s.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 10/18/2023 through Saturday 10/21/2023):
Upper-level ridging will strengthen slightly into Wednesday forcing skies to clear a bit more and dry conditions to continue. By Thursday morning a new occluding low-pressure system will have entered the region, but the day should remain dry. By the evening hours of Thursday the showers ahead of the surface warm front will begin to impact Athens. Showers will continue overnight and through Friday as the cold front follows not far behind. Long-term model guidance does not suggest any of these storms turning severe as instability and shear remain minimal due to the already cool temperatures being felt by southeast Ohio. Chances for additional rain showers will exist into Saturday as well, as the outskirts of the upper-level jet continue overhead due to the slow-moving system.