Issued: 8pm on Sunday, October 22nd 2023
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-term Forecast (Sunday 10/22/2023 through Tuesday 10/24/2023):
As we kick off this week, a robust high-pressure system is positioned to the south, maintaining its dominance over the next several days. This system will usher in dry and sunny conditions for Southeast Ohio, thanks to the strong subsidence and high-pressure buildup. The broad scale of this high-pressure area will keep the jetstream to the north, effectively diverting any potential showers away from our region. By Tuesday, warm air advection (WAA) from the south will usher in a delightful warm-up, with afternoon temperatures surging into the mid-70s, slightly exceeding the seasonal average. Expect these pleasant temperatures to persist throughout the workweek.
Long-term Forecast (Wednesday 10/25/2023 through Saturday 10/28/2023):
Heading into Wednesday, the jetstream will gradually shift southward as the high-pressure system begins to wane. This transition will introduce a gradual increase in cloud cover for Southeast Ohio. By Thursday afternoon, mostly cloudy skies are anticipated as the departing surface high-pressure system gives way to a small shortwave approaching the region. As we progress into Friday, a longwave trough and accompanying surface low pressure will move into the area. The associated cold front is expected to sweep through late Friday night and early Saturday morning, bringing with it scattered showers. While these showers have the potential to become more widespread by Saturday afternoon, it’s worth noting that the conditions for severe storms appear to be limited due to weak shear and instability as a result of the stabilizing morning cold front.
Synopsis:
Sunday through Tuesday: High pressure dominates allowing for sunny skies and warm, dry afternoons.
Wednesday through Friday afternoon: Clouds begin to build in as the high pressure weakens and the jetstream moves south.
Friday night through Saturday: The surface cold front will pass Friday night/Saturday morning bringing scattered showers that will become more widespread into the afternoon.
