Issued: 8pm on Sunday, September 14th 2025
Technical Forecast Discussion
Short-Term Forecast (Sunday 09/14/2025 through Tuesday 09/16/2025)
For much of the short-term, an upper-level ridge is expected to persist during this time. A pocket of relatively warm air at 500 mb will sit over Ohio during this time with a sandwich of cooler air at 700 mb. With warm air near the surface, minor instability will be present the next couple of days. However, high-pressure at the surface and the aforementioned ridge will discourage any convection to develop. Temperatures are expected to remain hot at near 90 as the ridge aloft traps much of the hot air near us with some warm temperatures from the east partially from the surface low off the coast of the Carolinas. Moisture will be present near the surface, though at 700 mb and higher, much of that moisture dissipates as a dominate dry airmass remains over Ohio. Though, by Tuesday that low near the Carolinas will travel just northwest towards the region to possibly bring the chance for low- to mid-level clouds to develop Tuesday. While precipitation is not currently expected, some cloud cover will be much welcomed compared to the intense sunlight that has defined September so far.
Long-Term Forecast (Wednesday 09/17/2025 through Saturday 09/20/2025)
Most of the long-term will see similar conditions that we’ve grown accustomed to these past few weeks. High-pressure will remain dominate at the surface as another ridge will overall move over the Midwest. A large gradient will be seen with this ridge, continuing a major stable pattern through the remainder of the week. Hot temperatures will continue, dipping slightly Wednesday, but picking back up by Thursday into Saturday. Though, at the surface, a low-pressure system will slowly move eastward towards Ohio, following alongside a cut-off low aloft. This low isn’t expected to reach Ohio until Sunday, but with a minor stationary front and more potent cold front associated with it, we may seem some semblance of precipitation Saturday… though confidence for this is not particularly high currently. If anything, this may only produce some cloud cover around the area, especially as precipitable water do not amount to anything high in value.
